Iran’s use of Iraq as a missile base: Threats and logistics - analysis
Tensions with Iran appear underpinned by similar discussions about deterrence
By Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, February 18, 2021
An Iranian flag is pictured near in a missile
during a military drill, with the participation of Iran’s air defense
units in October. (West Asia News Agency/Reuters) (photo credit: West Asia News Agency / Reuters )
Iran could move up to 200 long-range missiles to Iraq,
a report noted earlier this week, a move that would be designed to put
in place missiles that could reach Israel. The reason Iran might do this
is to prevent a direct IDF retaliation against targets within Iranian
territory if there is a confrontation with Iran or Hezbollah in Syria or
Lebanon.
In a sense, Iran’s
concept of using ballistic missiles based in Iraq is similar to the
planning concepts that underpinned US-Soviet tensions over missile bases
and strike capability during the Cold War. There was a question in the
1950s over the military logic of using preemption, according to a
documentary on US strategic nuclear policy. There was pressure to
preempt war through a first strike, which Curtis LeMay called
anticipatory retaliation. The notion was that since war was unavoidable
one must get the first blow in.
Later the doctrine changed to examine
how nuclear weapons might be used. Deterrence became a key word in the
debate. The development of ballistic missile submarines ensured
strategic stability because it was survivable in the case of war.
Tensions
with Iran appear underpinned by similar discussions about deterrence.
Iran’s use of Iraq provides the country not only with strike
capabilities, but deterrence as well. However, this is not as simple as
it may look on paper. Iran has been sending weapons for Iraq for years.
In the 1980s, it mobilized Iraqi Shi’ites alongside its Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps to fight Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
The Badr
corps and leaders – like Hadi al-Amiri and the late Abu Mahdi
al-Muhandis – learned their trade in the 1980s. Later, Iran sent
explosive device technology to Iraq. These were called “explosively
formed penetrators,” which killed at least 196 Americans. In 2014, when
Iran began advising the Iraqis to fight ISIS, they also sent weapons and
know-how. Drones, missiles and other munitions followed.
IRAN
USED the weakness of Iraq’s state structure to build a militia army in
Iraq called the Hashd al-Shaabi, or PMU. This group includes the Badr
Organization, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat Hezbolah al-Nujaba, Kataib
Hezbollah and other groups. In 2017, Qais Khazali, head of AAH, went to
Lebanon to showcase Iraqi militia support for Hezbollah. By the summer
of 2018 a Kataib Hezbollah headquarters, in a villa near Albukamal, was
coordinating Iranian weapons trafficking from Iraq to Syria.
This was
part of the road to the sea network that links Iran to Lebanon: first
through Iraq, then to Syria via Deir Ezzor and T-4 airbase and finally
reaching Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iran also moves weapons via Damascus
airport and has tried to set up weapons factories. Iran has also sought
to provide Hezbollah with precision guided munitions. Iran also moved
drones to T-4 and, in April 2018, tried to move its 3rd Khordad air
defense there as well. An airstrike destroyed the 3rd Khordad, according
to Ynet. An airstrike also destroyed the KH villa in Albukamal in June
2018. Pro-Iran voices in Iraq have blamed the US-led coalition and
Israel for some airstrikes. In July and August 2019, a series of
airstrikes hit pro-Iranian militia warehouses in Iraq. These included
Camp Falcon near Baghdad.
IN
AUGUST 2018, Iran moved ballistic missiles to Iraq, according to
Reuters. Iran secretly moved more missiles to Iraq in November 2019,
reports indicate. Iran also constructed the Imam Ali base near
Albukamal. In May 2020, it built new storage tunnels at the Imam Ali
base. Iraqi-based militias linked to Iran have also vowed to support
Hezbollah in a war with Israel. In February 2018, as the PMU was being
incorporated into the Iraqi Security Forces, Akram al-Kaabi of Harakat
Hezbollah vowed to support Hezbollah.
After the US killed IRGC Quds
Force head Qasem Soleimani, Hezbollah sent Sheikh Mohammed Kawtharani to
Iraq to help coordinate the PMU in February 2020.
This
is the complete picture of Iranian involvement in Iraq and potential
Iraqi militia support for Hezbollah. This picture is also how the
pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have helped festoon Syria with their
networks and supporters. The ballistic missile issue has been raised in
the past.
Iran has moved 107 mm. short-range Katyusha rockets to Iraq to
target American forces. It has also moved 122 mm. grad rockets and the
Fajr 1 rocket, which have a range of nearly 60 km. The Fajr 5 has also
been moved to Iraq, with a range of 75km. We also know the Fateh 110 was
sent to Iraq in 2015. Iran has supplied Hamas in the past with
technology such as the 240 mm. Fajr 3 rocket that has a 43km range. A
CSIS report noted that Iran has shipped the Zelzal, Fateh 110 and
Zolfagher to Iraq.
These have ranges of 150 km. to 700 km. Iran has used
precision rockets against Kurdish dissidents in Koya in 2018, against
ISIS in Syria and against the US in Ayn al-Assad base in January 2020 in
Iraq. Its latest attack was likely against US forces in Erbil using short range 107 mm. rockets fired near Erbil at US forces at the airport.
IRAN’S
ARSENAL of rockets is well known. It has a plethora of them and keeps
increasing their abilities. A quick rundown, aside those mentioned
above, include the solid-fueled Fateh 313, the liquid-fueled Shahab 1
and Qiam, as well as the Shahab 3, and the solid-fueled Sejjil.
There
are also the Ghadr, Khorramshahr and Emad missiles. Many of these can be
mounted on trucks, making them mobile. The rockets that are solid
fueled can be wheeled out and fired immediately, such as from a
Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL). Iran has a large arsenal of missiles
to choose from as it seeks to move some to Iraq.
The past indicates the threat the missiles in Iraq can pose to
Israel. During the ‘Great Scud Hunt’ of 1991, US-led Coalition air power
flew 2,493 missions trying to find Scud missiles that were supposedly
out in Iraq’s western desert. 42 Scuds were launched at Israel from
Iraq. At the time it was believed they were being moved on large trucks
that require some time to disassemble before or after launch in order to
be hidden from airstrikes.
Overall the mission to find the Scuds was a
disaster. Iraq’s fleet of TELs was able to disperse and the use of F-15s
and U-2 spy planes, as well as A-10s, didn’t work in finding the
launchers. That was back in 1991, and technology has improved since.
The
Iranian base at Albukamal is around 540 km. from Israel. Missiles in
Iran’s inventory with that range include the Fateh 313, the Zolfagher,
Ghadr, Khorramshahr, Sejjil, the Shahab 3 and perhaps the Shahab 2 if
its range can be extended. Iran has vastly increased the precision of
its missiles over time, and it has added drones and other munitions to
its arsenal. This makes the setup very different from 1991.
Iran has
shown sophisticated capabilities in the past, such as the drone and
cruise missile swarm attack on Saudi Arabia in September 2019. However,
it has also proved that in Syria the rockets it supplied to groups
intended to be used against Israel – such as in the salvo in May 2018 or
the four rockets fired in November 2019 – were not as sophisticated.
Sputnik One says: Iran is tyrannical regime which successive US administrations has failed to deal with & the Obama administration actually pandered to the mad Mullahs in granting them their wish for a legitimate path to building nuclear weapons within 15 years under terms of the JPCOA agreement which deliberately did not cover any limitations on missile developments and thus even if Iran had kept to the limited enrichment of uranium under the terms of the JPCOA deal ( which it did not from the outset ) the way was clear for Iran to develop nuclear warhead capable missile systems without inspection or limitation of any kind such as range & payload.
Eventually the Iranians will build missiles with sufficient range to strike America with nuclear weapons as this is the mad Mullahs ultimate goal - destroying the 'Great Satan' as they call the USA but I am not expecting Biden to lift a finger to stop it, just the opposite as Biden like his boss Obama will be receive a large bribe from Iran for allowing them to go ahead with their diabolical plans!
The American people deserve better than Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Schumer, Clinton, Kerry, Rice, Jarrett , Obama Soros, AOC, Sanders & all the other billionaire Marxist and criminal elements that now govern America. I pray that Biden will be a one term president & that either Donald Trump or another Republican is elected POTUS in 2024 because if Biden & Harris are not ousted then America is finished as a free nation under God!
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