Is President Trump on the verge of being impeached by Congress and still win 2020 re-election?

Washington Examiner

Exclusive poll: Most think Trump will be impeached and win 2020 reelection

by Paul Bedard

 | October 09, 2019 10:31 AM

Americans expect President Trump to get roughed up in a House impeachment but soldier on to win reelection, according to the latest poll on the White House crisis.

In the Zogby Analytics survey provided exclusively to Secrets:

• Likely voters, 53% to 40%, support the House impeachment inquiry.
• By a margin of 47%-41%, they support impeachment.
• And by a wide gap of 46% to 33%, voters “believe President Trump will win re-election in 2020.”

Pollster Jonathan Zogby said, “Maybe this is the perfect storm for a Trump win in 2020. He has survived every crisis imaginable, and maybe he will become the first president to be impeached and reelected. Sounds crazy, but in the case of Donald Trump, not that crazy.”

Should the president be impeached and win reelection, it would be historic. In recent history, President Bill Clinton's impeachment over the Whitewater and Monica Lewinsky sex affairs came after his 1996 reelection, and President Richard Nixon resigned after his reelection and before the House voted to impeach him over Watergate.

The House appears to be on an impeachment fast-track, though the White House has said it will not cooperate, a move that would slow action.

Zogby’s poll is the first to test both impeachment and reelection, and it made clear that the public continues to be divided on Trump and sometimes irked by his tactics.

He said that played out in the latest crisis involving charges that in a phone call, Trump pressured the president of Ukraine to investigate the actions of former Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, in his work for a controversial energy company in the country.

The poll asked the public if they approved of Trump’s action and found that they didn’t, 46% to 40%, with 14% not sure.

But the driving theme in the poll analysis is that in the end, Trump is likely to come out a winner.

“Although voters support the impeachment inquiry and the impeachment of President Trump, it's not as black and white as it seems. The issue of how this impacts Trump's presidency is quite gray, and the reason for that is voters we surveyed still think the president is going to win reelection in 2020,” said Zogby, the son of pollster and author John Zogby who teams with Jed Babbin in the weekly Secrets Trump Report Card published on Saturdays.

What’s more, those who expect Trump’s reelection, including suburban voters and younger millennials, appears wider than his base, a good sign for the GOP. And those “split” on his reelection, including women and Hispanics, are not very far apart.

On Trump’s reelection coalition, here’s what Zogby said:

• Look at the groups who think he is going to win a second term: men (55% yes/29% no), young millennials age 18-29 (43% yes/38% no), Generation X voters age 30-49 (49% yes/30% no) and older voters age 65+ (47% yes/32% no), independents (36% yes/29% no), all regions of the United States, especially southern voters (52% yes/28% no), suburban voters (42% yes/34% no), large city voters (51% yes/32% no), union voters (58% yes/23% no), middle-income voters whose household income is $75k-$100k (56% yes/32% no), and upper-income voter whose household income is $150k+ (59% yes/26% no).

• Some important subgroups who are split on their opinion of whether Trump will win reelection in 2020 were women (37% yes/37% no), Hispanics (40% yes/41% no), moderates (37% yes/36% no), and suburban women (34% yes/37% no).