Satellites, ships in crosshairs: Are Russia, China running circles around US?
Russia is carrying out missile tests on satellites and China has built mock US aircraft carriers for target practice. Are these threats to the US?
A Sukhoi Su-75 Checkmate prototype warplane is
displayed at the Dubai Airshow, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, November
14, 2021.(photo credit: REUTERS/IMAD CREIDI)
Washington is nonplussed that Russia has conducted what the US calls a
“dangerous and irresponsible” missile test. It targeted one of Russia’s
own satellites as part of an apparent anti-satellite missile system. The US says that the test endangered the crew of the International Space Station (ISS).
Meanwhile, H.I. Sutton at USNI News noted that “a second suspected
missile target in the shape of a U.S. aircraft carrier has been spotted
in a remote Chinese desert, according to satellite photos.” The carrier
looks to be a target for missiles. “Carrier target is about 300 miles
away from a larger suspected missile range in the Taklamakan Desert,"
first reported by USNI News on Sunday. "The two sites share similar
characteristics and are aligned on a map with the carriers facing the
same direction – as if in a convoy. Like the first, this new target
shares the same dimensions as a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier,” the report
notes.
China is
also building new aircraft carriers, one of which may be launched as
early as next year. The US appears to be reacting every week to new
reports about these kinds of threats, whether it is hypersonic missiles or “carrier destroying” missiles, or threats to space and America’s global role.
There are other threats as well. The US and Western allies are
talking about defending Ukraine against Russia. They are also embroiled
in a potential clash with Belarus. At the same time US President Joe
Biden is warning China not to take action against Taiwan.
The
list of crises is growing and the US has signaled that it wants to move
from 20 years of the global war on terror to face down “near-peer”
adversaries like Russia and China. But Russia and China have watched the
US withdraw from Afghanistan and be pushed around again and again in
other places. Turkey, for instance, got the US to withdraw from part of
Syria and even attacked its partners on the ground and the US has stayed
silent.
The flags of the United States and China fly from a lamppost in the
Chinatown neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts, US, November 1, 2021.
(credit: REUTERS/BRIAN SNYDER)
Can
Washington simultaneously deal with all these emerging problems? It
appears to have been surprised by the Chinese hypersonic missile gains.
The stories about China using mock US ships for target practice and
Russia destroying a satellite all seem to be potential new challenges to
the US.
While
America has the most sophisticated military technology, such as F-35s,
it is generally slow at procurement and has rested on its laurels for
years. There are new weapons in the pipeline and the US wants to invest
in its navy but at air shows like Dubai it tends to be countries like
Russia that steal the spotlight, most recently with their new
"Checkmate" warplane. Whether those planes are actually as good as the
designers say is unclear but what matters sometimes is perception and
the perception is that the US is being challenged everywhere.
The US has been here before. In 1970, President Richard Nixon said
in a speech, “if, when the chips are down, the world’s most powerful
nation, the United States of America, acts like a pitiful, helpless
giant, the forces of totalitarianism and anarchy will threaten free
nations and free institutions throughout the world.”
Today this appears to be more true than ever. The new cover of The Atlantic
says “The bad guys are winning.” In the important article, Anne
Applebaum writes the following: “If the 20th century was the story of a
slow, uneven struggle, ending with the victory of liberal democracy
over other ideologies - communism, fascism, virulent nationalism - the
21st century is, so far, a story of the reverse.”
Indeed,
the authoritarians are on the march everywhere. Turkey has been
deporting Syrian refugees for Tik Tok videos and has crushed all
dissent. NATO-head Jens Stoltenberg was pressed on why Turkey is a
member of NATO when it has become a totalitarian regime. He tried to
answer, but the answers are hollow. Ankara no longer upholds any of the
values that NATO was designed to protect. Ankara works with Russia and
China as well as Iran. All the dictatorships work together. Venezuela
and Belarus are key partners of Turkey, Iran and Russia.
These
countries all sense weakness in the US and the West. But they know the
US is still strong when it comes to military technology and also when it
comes to the US network of allies, whether the Five Eyes network, or
other groupings. The authoritarians by contrast are just beginning to
work together in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
While
some far-right regimes, like Imran Khan's in Pakistan, have argued that
a multi-polar world is important, replacing US hegemony, getting there
is difficult when countries like Pakistan barely govern their own
borders. But the alliance of authoritarians is making gains. These
achievements in hypersonic missiles and in space will begin to eat away
at the US role.
It’s
clear that while the US spent 20 years fighting extremists, it largely
ended up withdrawing and handing Afghanistan back to the Taliban. It has
to partner with governments like Qatar that are authoritarian and also
with groups in Iraq that are close to Iran. Meanwhile, US adversaries,
who were not engaged in these “endless wars” were building their
arsenals and also selling influence around the world. China was moving
into Africa and South America, Russia was spreading its weight and so
are Turkey and Iran.
While
the satellite test and the target ships in the Chinese desert are just
symbols, the headlines show that the US is constantly trying to shift
its focus from places like Ukraine to Taiwan. Can it defend both? Time
will tell.
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