Report: Israel eyes major submarine expansion as Turkish Navy grows

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Israel's defense establishment recommends expanding the Navy to eight submarines, citing Turkey's growing fleet, the regional shift and October 7 lessons.

The Israeli defense establishment has formulated a new professional opinion that was delivered to the political echelon, unequivocally recommending that it expand the Navy's submarine fleet to eight in simultaneous service, Galei Tzahal reported on Tuesday.

The decision reflects a significant change in approach: instead of replacing older vessels with new ones while maintaining the current quota, the defense establishment is now seeking to expand the fleet in total, which currently numbers five active submarines and is expected to grow to six upon the upcoming arrival of the newest vessel.

The defense establishment's change in course stems from close tracking of the Turkish Navy's growth in recent years. Turkey currently has 14 active German-made submarines, similar in design to Israel's, and is expected to expand its fleet to 18 in the coming years. Along with the growing Turkish threat, the defense establishment's new position is influenced by the new regional reality and by lessons learned from the October 7th attacks.

The size of Israel's submarine fleet is a sensitive topic in the country, among other things, because the state commission of inquiry into the Submarine Affair (Case 3000) found that in the past no professional and orderly staff work was conducted regarding the required size of the fleet. While past internal debates in the defense establishment suggested that five or six submarines would suffice, it has now reached an official position supporting an expansive fleet.

Each submarine is estimated to cost approximately one billion euros. Under the latest procurement agreement signed with Germany, Israel retains an option to purchase a seventh submarine at the original price, an option that has not yet been exercised.

The defense establishment recommends exercising the option as soon as possible to avoid the expected price increase, then procuring an eighth submarine.

Senior officials have clarified that the broader initiative will not be advanced immediately because of the upcoming elections. However, the defense establishment intends to present it to the next government and push for its orderly implementation.